Orion Weather

orion weather

Graphical Forecasts from Morehead City/Newport NWS

Area Forecast Discussion from MHX (Morehead City/Newport National Weather Service)

000
FXUS62 KMHX 221739 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM/...
AS OF 1230 PM WED...UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INLAND THIS 
AFTN ALONG WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. SW FLOW 
AND NEAR MAX INSOLATION PRODUCING TEMPS INTO UPR 60S SRN INLAND 
SECTIONS. LAMP GDNC HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SUPPORTS RAISING MAX 
TEMPS TO LOWER 70S KDPL-KOAJ-KISO-KEWN AREAS. SEA BREEZE ACTION WILL 
KEEP KMRH-KNJM AREAS IN LOWER 60S WHILE KMHX AND KNKT WILL SEE TEMPS 
PEAK NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN DROP WITH SEA BREEZE. SW WINDS AND AREA 
OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS IS PRODUCING CU FIELD ALREADY TO 
KEWN-KISO LINE AND PROJECTED TO SPREAD NE DURING AFTN. MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD PRODUCING SOME 
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FOR INLAND 
SECTIONS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK RATHER LIMITED AND
ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN BEST MOISTURE IS AT IT GREATEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
NEVER COMPLETELY SATURATE WITH A DRY LAYER AROUND H7 THAT WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
MODERATE SWLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND 10-15 MPH
INLAND AND 15-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SRN COASTAL
AREAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTER. LIGHT MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE NE THURSDAY WITH SCHC POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL WITH CONTINUITY LACKING ON
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. THE GFS IS AMONG THE FASTER SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE AS THE 12Z EURO BRINGS
THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...NEARLY A 12 HOUR DIFFERENCE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A QUICK REVIEW OF THE 00Z EURO...IT IS MORE IN
LINE WITH 00Z UKMET WHICH HAS THE FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE
A BEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE TIMING WILL BE
FINE TUNED ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

SEEMS MODELS ARE WANING SLIGHTLY ON THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT.  BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE BACKED OFF THE LLJ FEATURE BUT STILL 
ILLUSTRATE MARGIN INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE LOWER 
HUNDREDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND DECENT SHEAR.  THE TIMING OF 
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP
ISO THUNDER IN FOR NOW...WITH LIKELY POPS PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
TO ADJUST FOR THE SLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FRONT IS ALSO IN QUESTION WITH THE EURO HAVING 
A SOLID LINE OF PRECIPITATION COMING THROUGH WHILE THE GFS SPLITS 
THE ENERGY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WELL TO 
THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND A LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER 
OF THE CWA. IT IS HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT WHICH SOLUTION TO FAVOR.  
BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO/UKMET.  
HOWEVER...IF THE GFS DOES OCCUR...THE AREA WILL RECEIVE LESS 
PRECIPITATION THAN FORECAST. ALSO IF HEAVIER PRECIP DEVELOPS TO THE 
SOUTH...THIS MAY ROB THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS THE GULF MOISTURE 
BECOMES CUT OFF. AGAIN...WILL FINE TUNE THE DETAILS AS MODELS COME 
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
PIVOTS OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY. CAA WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MIGRATE OVER THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. INCREASED POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT...WITH VALUES IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE 40S.  
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER AMPLE SUN AND A NORTHERLY FLOW 
REGIME...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. WITH RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MON AND TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ 
AS OF 630 AM WED...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS BUT
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW. WHILE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN MOIST...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS PREVENTED
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING  WITH GUSTY SWLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. LAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR STCU WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT GFS/NAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT AND IT WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLS TO SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE OVER DID THE STCU THIS MORNING WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SUB-VFR CRITERIA IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS A 
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.  ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT 
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEV ELOPES WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION. EXPECT PLEASANT CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AGAIN
INCREASING MONDAY. FLOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ 
AS OF 1235 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SW WINDS 
WILL INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1015 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. 41036 HAS
FALLEN BELOW 6 FT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE
BRIEF AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE NEAR 20 KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES OR FORECAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE..WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FOR A SHORT
DURATION THURSDAY...AROUND 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE DEVELOPS FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AS A RESULT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS.
GUSTS WILL REACH AOA 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER AND DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES OVERHEAD
WITH A SURGE DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AROUND 20-25KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH VALUES NEAR
15-20KTS OVER THE SOUNDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15KTS FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3-5FT ACROSS THE COASTAL 
WATERS THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES.  ANTICIPATE 
HEIGHTS TO BUILD EVEN MORE FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH SEAS 
4-6FT...7-10FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY MORNING IN 
RESPONSE TO DECREASED WINDS FROM THE WNW.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2-4FT 
THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY 
FLOW INCREASES.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
AMZ152-154-156-     158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JBM/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...LEP/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK/DAG

orion weather

Main Menu

weather

photos & video

photo gallery
ophelia 2005
157MB, 6:44 run time

donate

thank you!